Redefining Critical Raw Materials: From Catch-Up to Structural Advantage

Developing new frameworks to understand where real leverage exists in global materials systems

Critical raw materials sit at the heart of the energy transition, yet current strategies largely assume that supply-chain dominance can be reversed through diversification, reshoring, or capacity expansion.

This ongoing work challenges that assumption, examining how structural factors, not just resource availability, shape who controls critical materials systems.

The Approach (ongoing work)

This research develops a structural framework for understanding critical raw materials systems, focusing on processing and value-chain dynamics rather than extraction alone.

It introduces the Critical Dominance Opportunity Index (CDOI) — a novel indicator designed to measure not just current concentration, but the remaining structural opportunity for future dominance.

By combining market concentration metrics with an analysis of fragmentation and dominance thresholds, the work moves beyond static measures of supply risk to assess whether strategic entry is still feasible in different material systems.

This reframes the central question from:

Where are we resource dependent?

to

Where can we still build strategic leverage?

The Potential Impact

This work is contributing to a shift in how critical raw materials strategy is understood and approached. By introducing a structural lens on contestability, it provides a foundation for:

• Moving beyond reactive “catch-up” strategies toward anticipatory, forward-looking policy design

• Identifying where real strategic leverage can still be built, rather than where it has already been lost

• Supporting the integration of material retention, circular economy, and industrial strategy into a single coordinated framework

More broadly, it demonstrates that securing critical materials is not simply a question of supply, but of timing, structure, and system design.