The decoy effect — how Beijing steers western mining capital

Published on 29 June 2026

At a Glance

In the global race for critical raw materials (CRM), traditional supply-and-demand metrics fail to account for the role of strategic market psychology within international mineral systems. This Op-Ed introduces the concept of "the decoy effect" to global resource strategy, analyzing how state-backed mechanisms masterfully direct and distract private Western mining capital. By creating calculated economic misdirection, these maneuvers anchor investor focus onto specific market signals while strategic consolidation of critical minerals quietly occurs elsewhere. To build genuinely resilient, independent supply chains, Western markets, institutional investors, and CRM policy makers must learn to recognize these psychological anchors and move past the misdirection.